Here are some key insights into the June Consumer Price Index (CPI):
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by only 0.16% for the month. This is the lowest reading in over two years, marking a significant downside break.
It was a downside surprise compared to the consensus estimate of 0.30%.
This lower inflation rate may give the Fed some flexibility with interest rates in the second half of 2023.
Additionally, June's Producer Price Index, released the day after the CPI report, rose less than expected, further boosting optimism about inflation. However, it's important not to draw hasty conclusions based on individual reports alone. I'm seeking more information before making any judgments about the economy, inflation, and interest rates.
Remember, inflation can be tricky, and everyone's experience with rising prices varies based on their spending habits. If you have concerns about inflation, please don't hesitate to contact me. Your personal experience with inflation matters most to me, even if reports indicate a downward trend.