The accompanying table shows that 98% of investors believe the Fed will raise short-term interest rates from 0.25% to between 5.25% and 5.5% at its July meeting. But after July, the Fed Chair and investors disagreed about what will come next. Most investors believe the Fed will not raise rates again. So who’s correct; the Fed Chair or the investors? The Fed Chair may have more insight into the economy, but investors are positioning portfolios based on their outlook for rates. So both have a lot at stake.
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