The current market rally has lasted roughly nine months, about the length of the market's downtrend in 2022. While the Standard & Poor's 500 remains well below the high, the downtrend and the uptrend are starting to look similar. The first quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 2% rate, and the job market appears in good shape. Meanwhile, the stock market, considered a lead indicator, rallied in the first half, catching some by surprise. Those in the "just a matter of time before a recession" camp point to the yield curve. It remains inverted, with the interest rate on 2-year Treasury notes higher than on 10-year Treasury notes. Historically, an inverted yield curve has signaled a recession. Remain focused on your investment strategy, which reflects your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.